Partner Publications

Canadian Energy Outlook 2018 – Horizon 2050

Author: Institut de l’Énergie Trottier

Abstract: This report projects the evolution of Canada’s energy production and consumption to 2050. It compares four scenarios for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with a base scenario. This is the first report of its kind covering Canada for more than a decade.

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Holding the line on current light-duty vehicle GHG emission regulations in Canada: good for the climate and Canadian consumers

Author: Équiterre

Abstract: This submission contains comments to inform the discussion of Canada’s assessment of the regulation of greenhouse gas emissions from private cars and light-duty vehicles. This submission supports that the current regulation of light duty vehicles in Canada is appropriate and must be maintained by initiating the regulatory process to remove the reference to US EPA regulations.

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Evolution of the Joint Carbon Market in 2018: Impact of Ontario’s Entry and Potential Exit

Author: Bastien Cloarec & Mark Purdon, IQCarbone

Abstract: In this research note of the Quebec Institute of Carbon (IQCarbone), we consider the behavior of the carbon market operating under the auspices of the Western Climate Initiative (WCI) since Ontario joined California and Quebec’s efforts in January 2018. A detailed analysis of auction results for February and May 2018 as well as public opinion polls conducted in Ontario prior to the June 7, 2018 elections is presented. Among the various factors that could explain carbon prices on the carbon market, we are inclined to conclude that domestic political dynamics in the three jurisdictions have played a greater role than is generally recognized. While the possibility of oversupply of emission allowances warrants further examination, in addition to the other factors influencing the price of carbon in the common carbon market, the overall results of our analysis suggest that anticipation of the exit from the carbon market by the Progressive Conservative Party has had the effect of curbing private sector participation in all three jurisdictions since Ontario’s formal entry into the joint carbon market. Our analysis also challenges arguments that companies are acquiring excess allowances for future compliance (known as “banking”), which puts downward pressure on carbon prices. On the contrary, we observe that the surplus quotas are unsold and currently “out of play” of the market. The majority of allowances unsold at auction remain held by the government and are therefore not held by the regulated firms. While the year 2017 saw California consolidate its political commitment to climate change mitigation and the carbon market, political uncertainty quickly shifted to Ontario and appears to have affected carbon prices.

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